Bubble Talk

[keener83]

Current Bracketology by Jason Moy

West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Harvard vs. 6 Denver

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 7 Ohio State

East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 5 Quinnipiac

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern

I liked last week better when we were in Allentown

I'd love to trade spots with Quinny in that Providence Region. Pairwise #5 is possible if things go well this weekend. First things first, win toknight!

[FireKnight]

Current Bracketology by Jason Moy

West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Harvard vs. 6 Denver

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 7 Ohio State

East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 5 Quinnipiac

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern

I liked last week better when we were in Allentown

But that's a great regional to be in. Very winnable. Of course, things will change significantly this weekend. QU is gonna slide at least 2 or 3 spots.

[vicb]

Current Bracketology by Jason Moy

West Regional (Fargo):
16 American International vs. 1 St. Cloud State
12 Harvard vs. 6 Denver

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Minnesota State
11 Cornell vs. 7 Ohio State

East Regional (Providence):
14 Providence vs. 4 Minnesota Duluth
10 Arizona State vs. 5 Quinnipiac

Northeast Regional (Manchester):
13 Bowling Green vs. 2 Massachusetts
9 Clarkson vs. 8 Northeastern

I liked last week better when we were in Allentown

[Hydra88]

College Hockey News now has us at a 100.0% chance of making the tournament. My reading of this tells me that while it is still mathematically possible that we could miss the tournament, the odds of this are below 1 in 2,000 (0.05%). As for being a regional 2-seed, we're currently looking at a 35% chance of that, which would inevitably rise if we have success in Lake Placid.

Now we're home safe, as not once in 20,000 simulations did we miss the NCAA tournament. We could hypothetically finish anywhere from 5th to 13th. Interestingly, Harvard and Cornell both have a 95% chance of making the tournament, meaning that, with us and Quinnipiac, the ECAC is very likely to have four teams at the NCAAs (if Brown wins next weekend, we could even have five).

[FireKnight]

If we win the ECAC, we will surpass Ohio State and Quinnipiac. We will also have the chance to jump Northeastern. Even if Denver loses in their semis, we will not jump them. So, we could end up as high as #6 but also could go down quite a bit still but not out.

[Hydra88]

Nevermind. We're firmly in 9th place in the pairwise now, and could probably climb to a #2 seed in a regional with success in LP, right?

College Hockey News now has us at a 100.0% chance of making the tournament. My reading of this tells me that while it is still mathematically possible that we could miss the tournament, the odds of this are below 1 in 2,000 (0.05%). As for being a regional 2-seed, we're currently looking at a 35% chance of that, which would inevitably rise if we have success in Lake Placid.

[dave techer]

What about the possibility of losing games 2 and 3 to Yale, which would make us 23-12-2? Lose tonight (especially in OT) and Yale has all the momentum. We'd probably need some help from other teams at that point.

Nevermind. We're firmly in 9th place in the pairwise now, and could probably climb to a #2 seed in a regional with success in LP, right?

[FireKnight]

What about the possibility of losing games 2 and 3 to Yale, which would make us 23-12-2? Lose tonight (especially in OT) and Yale has all the momentum. We'd probably need some help from other teams at that point.

Losing 2 games to Yale would likely drop us to 13 or 14 when it all pans out (we'd drop behind ASU, Harvard, and one of Union/Cornell). If 3 "lower seeds" make it to LP, you have to consider the chances of a bubble team getting the automatic bid. The AHA champion cuts the field to 15. If BGSU wins the WCHA, they'll be in the top 15 in PWR anyway, similarly if Union goes on a run (which would displace Cornell), ND wins the B1G, etc. There simply aren't enough teams that can move up to knock us out, even if we end up sitting at 13.

The better option ... beat Yale!

[dave techer]

What about the possibility of losing games 2 and 3 to Yale, which would make us 23-12-2? Lose tonight (especially in OT) and Yale has all the momentum. We'd probably need some help from other teams at that point.

[Hydra88]

We seem to be nearly off the bubble according to College Hockey News, which currently gives us a 95% chance to make the NCAA tournament. I'm not sure, but beating Yale again tonight might push Clarkson to 100% (especially considering that other teams will be seeing their seasons end in the next couple days). At this point, I'm thinking Clarkson is more playing for seeding than trying to make the tournament.

[CheelFaithful92]

Great insight. But you forgot the most important series this weekend, a Clarkson sweep of Yale. Nothing matters if we don't get out of this weekend!

should be some pretty good matchups around the league this weekend. Can't wait to see what happens.

[cutothefrozen4]

So here are the matchups we need to care about for this weekend:

ECAC - Cornell hosting Union is a big one, Union upsetting Cornell would be fine and all but then they're really close to being in a good position on the bubble and if we end up facing them in the Semis that could be a loser goes home type of situation.

Go Big Green, Harvard is in a tough spot already so they'll be playing desperate with the understanding two losses would easily end their season, even a 2-2 playoff run could end it for them so hopefully Dartmouth at least takes one.

I don't see Brown as a legit threat to win it all but if they did that would sting so hopefully Quinnipiac just ends their season this weekend but it'll be tough with all of the absent players from the QU lineup.

Hockey East - Boston College taking on Providence is the big one for me, BC is 41st in the Pairwise but were 2-1 against the Friars during the regular season, even a loss would be a crushing blow for them, two in a row probably ends their season so Leaman will have his guys ready.

Maine will travel to Matthews for a series with Northeastern, that's a good matchup for NU having already swept Maine up at Alfond earlier in the year.

Lowell looks to try and play it's way back onto the bubble by hosting a talented BU team, if they sweep they'll be on it heading into the semis, one loss and they'll need to win the conference tourney.

NCHC - CC @ Western Michigan is really interesting to me, CC is one of the hottest teams in the land and can score with anyone, Western is in a good spot at 13 but I could see them losing this series at home.

Denver hosting North Dakota scares me a bit, Denver is really young and North Dakota seem to be rolling now, Denver is already a lock, lets just hope they take 2 games this weekend, if not at least one to slow No Dak down.

Go St. Cloud, go Minnesota-Duluth the rest of the way, hopefully UMD wins it all and gives up a bump.

WCHA - Bowling Green helped themselves sweeping Michigan Tech, now they host another Michigan team in Northern Michigan, even one NMU victory would put BG in a tough spot

Go Minnesota State.

B1G - Ohio State to beat Penn State and Minnesota to take out Notre Dame is the best case I'd say. It does make me wonder though, with the B1G only doing one game this weekend if ND beats Minnesota and then loses to Ohio State I still believe they'd be on the outside looking in unless they got a lot of favorable help, if Ohio State loses on Sunday the B1G becomes fair game and they'll automatically get 2 teams in.

[vicb]

Pairwise bubble after Sat knight:
8) Northeastern (.5516) idle
t-9) Providence (.5509) idle
t-9) Ariz St (.5497) No More Reg Season Games
11) Clarkson (.5495) idle
12) Cornell (.5477) idle
13) Western Michigan (.5444) beat Miami 6-1
14) Harvard (.5436) idle
15) Notre Dame (.5387) beat MichSt U 2-0
t-16) Bowling Green (.5382) beat Mich Tech 6-2
t-16) Union (.5342) beat Colgate 4-0
t-18) North Dakota (.5335) beat UNO 5-4
t-18) UMLowell (.5314) idle
t-20) Penn State (.5309) beat Wisc 6-2 Game 3 Sunday
t-20) Minny (.5287) beat Mich 4-1
22) Lake Superior (.5284) beat Bemidji 3-1

[vicb]

Brown wins 6-5 over Princeton @ 3:30 of the 3rd OT. So Dartmouth vs SLU is the only series to go 3 games.
If Dartmouth wins it's Yale to CCT
If SLU wins it's Union to CCT

[CheelFaithful92]

Don't count Princeton out just yet. If they get it done tonight, I could see it going either way..



I'm not sure if any of you guys are tuned into the Brown Peinceton game, but the commentary is ridiculous. These guys are so hyped up, screaming and yelling.. you would think this was a stanley cup game 7.